Hindsight Markets Beta

Recaps · October 7, 2026

MI, October 7: $2.46 at 4:17 a.m., then a fade to $1.54

Float
955,086 shares
Volume
19.04 million shares
Previous close
$1.22
Open
$1.62 (up 32.8%)
High
$2.46 at 4:17 a.m.
Close
$1.54
2.461.221.414 a.m.9:30noon4 p.m.8 p.m.
MI on October 7, 2026, one-minute bars in New York time. Shaded: before the 9:30 a.m. open and after the 4:00 p.m. close. Bands: halts.

The day before

On October 6, MI opened at $4.50 and traded as high as $4.60. It fell to a low of $1.07 and closed at $1.22. About 10.04 million shares traded.

At 1:20 p.m. a GlobeNewsWire headline read: NFT Ltd. Announces Pricing of $2.55 Million Registered Direct Offering. The data doesn't say whether that had anything to do with the drop. The last bar of that day was $1.56.

Pre-market: the float traded by 4:10 a.m.

The first trades on the 7th were at $1.77, already above the $1.22 close. The float is 955,086 shares. By 4:10 a.m., more shares had traded than exist in the whole float.

From 4:11 to 4:14 it sat between $1.80 and $1.88.

Stop It's 4:15. MI is at $1.83. For four minutes it has stayed between $1.80 and $1.88, and more than the whole float has already traded. Would you buy a break higher?

Press play: the real Level 2, time and sales and chart stop at 4:15 a.m. ET for your call, then show what happened. The clip starts at 4:12 a.m. ET.

In the 4:15 minute it jumped from $1.83 to $2.29 on 380,630 shares. The next minute it reached $2.43. At 4:17 a.m. it hit $2.46, the high so far. That is 102% above the previous close.

It gave ground fast. By 4:21 it traded as low as $1.87. At 4:23 it pushed back to $2.22, a lower high under the $2.46 top.

The $1.59 bid wall

From 6:55 a.m., someone was bidding for a lot of stock at exactly $1.59. The size peaked at 67,805 shares at 7:11 a.m., about 7% of the float, across all exchanges.

Stop It's 7:34. MI is at $1.59. A bid wall has sat at $1.59 since 6:55, peaking near 68,000 shares at 7:11. Would you buy here, against that bid?

Press play: the real Level 2, time and sales and chart stop at 7:34 a.m. ET for your call, then show what happened. The clip starts at 7:31 a.m. ET.

Here's what happened. From 7:34:15 to 7:34:21, 18,940 shares traded at exactly $1.59 in 5.7 seconds, and the wall was gone. Sellers hit it. By 7:40 the stock had traded as low as $1.48.

Spikes before the open, and a 130,000-share ask wall

At 8:23 a.m. it ran to $1.89 on 409,059 shares, which put the volume at ten times the float by then. Two minutes later it was down to $1.41. At 8:50 it ran again. The 8:51 candle reached $2.00 on 667,361 shares.

At 8:59:53 a large ask wall showed up at $1.77. It peaked at 129,637 shares, about 14% of the float.

Stop It's 9:00. MI is at $1.75. About 130,000 shares are offered at $1.77, two cents above. Would you buy here?

Press play: the real Level 2, time and sales and chart stop at 9:00 a.m. ET for your call, then show what happened. The clip starts at 8:57 a.m. ET.

The wall was not eaten. It was pulled at 9:07:30, and the stock sat near $1.62 at that point. A new ask wall appeared at $1.76 at 9:07:30, peaked at 97,679 shares at 9:12:28 and was pulled at 9:12:43. At 9:12:54 a buy order swept 35,025 shares from $1.68 to $1.70, and a 24,905-share print went through at $1.70. A third ask wall at $1.76 peaked at 72,982 shares at 9:30:20 and was pulled at 9:35:07.

The open and the 11:05 flush

It opened at $1.62, up 33% from the previous close. It went from $1.56 to $1.76 and back to $1.51 within the first three minutes. At 9:47 a sell order swept 48,353 shares from $1.69 down to $1.56.

Then it quieted and drifted lower. At 11:04 it fell hard: a sell order swept 58,314 shares from $1.53 to $1.43. At 11:05 another sweep sold 56,145 shares from $1.53 to $1.41. $1.41 at 11:05 was the low after the open. The same minute closed at $1.61. A third sweep at 11:06 sold 35,097 shares from $1.57 to $1.45.

From 11:14 a bid wall sat at $1.47. It peaked at 86,645 shares at 11:41 and was pulled at 12:00:58.

The 424B5 and the close

At 12:00 p.m. the company filed a 424B5 prospectus (a shelf offering's terms). The stock was near $1.53. It rose to $1.84 by 12:21, its best price of the regular session, then slipped back toward $1.60. The filing is all the data shows. It doesn't say why the stock moved.

From 1 p.m. on, it traded in a narrow range with thin volume. It closed at $1.54, 37% under the $2.46 high of the day. That high came before the bell, at 4:17 a.m., 52% above where the stock opened.

By the close, 4.99 million shares had traded in the regular session, about 5 times the float. Counting pre-market (13.72 million) and 330,646 shares after hours, the day total was 19.04 million, about 20 times the float and 4.7 times normal volume.

What to take from it

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